请高手帮助翻译 2 谢谢

Question

Conclusions
This chapter illustrates the difficult situation facing Japanese fiscal policy in the years ahead. On the one hand, high public debt and adverse population dynamics increasingly constrain the government’s room for maneuver, suggesting that strong policy adjustments will eventually be required to put public finances back on a sustainable footing. Reforms currently implemented by the government are a step in the right direction, but further measures in both the pension and health systems will be needed to avoid a large increase in payroll taxes and government transfers that would distort incentives and harm economic growth.

On the other hand, the model’s simulation results suggest that ambitious debt stabilization, particularly through cuts in public investment and other expenditure, and further reductions in social security benefits could result in substantial short-term output costs, posing a risk to the recovery. This is particularly true in the case of public investment cuts, where the multipliers are generally believed to be larger. Therefore, as long as private demand remains fragile, fiscal adjustment policies would have to be implemented cautiously.
However, in view of the serious aging problem, once the recovery is on a sound footing, japan will need to implement a long-term fiscal strategy that will return the public finances to a sustainable position. This chapter suggests that public investment cuts, base-broadening measures for income taxes, some increase in the consumption tax, and reductions in social security benefits are likely to be the key building blocks of the longer-term solution.

Answer 1

Conclusions
结论
This chapter illustrates the difficult situation facing Japanese fiscal policy in the years ahead. On the one hand, high public debt and adverse population dynamics increasingly constrain the government’s room for maneuver, suggesting that strong policy adjustments will eventually be required to put public finances back on a sustainable footing. Reforms currently implemented by the government are a step in the right direction, but further measures in both the pension and health systems will be needed to avoid a large increase in payroll taxes and government transfers that would distort incentives and harm economic growth.
本章描述了日本在未来的几年中经济政策将遇到的困难处境。一方面，过高的公债和不利的人口动态越来越束缚政府的政策调整自由度，这意味着要使市场财政重新回到可持续性的基础上，最终将会采取强硬的政策调整。政府当前进行的改革是朝着正确方向迈进的一步，但是，在退休金、医疗卫生系统方面仍需采取进一步的措施，来避免工资所得税和政府转移性支出的大幅增长。这种大幅增长会损害经济原动力，同时会危害经济增长。

On the other hand, the model’s simulation results suggest that ambitious debt stabilization, particularly through cuts in public investment and other expenditure, and further reductions in social security benefits could result in substantial short-term output costs, posing a risk to the recovery. This is particularly true in the case of public investment cuts, where the multipliers are generally believed to be larger. Therefore, as long as private demand remains fragile, fiscal adjustment policies would have to be implemented cautiously.

另一方面，模型的模拟结果显示，稳定热追回报的债务，尤其以减少公共投资和其它开支为手段；以及进一步削减社会福利金，会产生巨大的短期支出成本，这是经济复苏的一大危险。在减少公共投资的情况下更是如此。人们普遍认为，公共投资会的减少会成几何数字上升。因此，如果私营企业的需求一直保持脆弱，那么实施财政调整政策时就必须要慎重。

However, in view of the serious aging problem, once the recovery is on a sound footing, japan will need to implement a long-term fiscal strategy that will return the public finances to a sustainable position. This chapter suggests that public investment cuts, base-broadening measures for income taxes, some increase in the consumption tax, and reductions in social security benefits are likely to be the key building blocks of the longer-term solution.

然而，鉴于严重的老化问题，一旦经济复苏建立了稳固基础，日本则需要实施一个长期财政策略，使市场经济财务形势重新回到可持续性发展的轨道上来。本章提出，减少公共投资、实行加宽所得税税基措施、增加某些消费税，以及削减社会福利，这些措施都有可能成为长期解决方案的重要组成部分。

Answer 2

Conclusions
This chapter illustrates the difficult situation facing Japanese fiscal policy in the years ahead. On the one hand, high public debt and adverse population dynamics increasingly constrain the government’s room for maneuver, suggesting that strong policy adjustments will eventually be required to put public finances back on a sustainable footing. Reforms currently implemented by the government are a step in the right direction, but further measures in both the pension and health systems will be needed to avoid a large increase in payroll taxes and government transfers that would distort incentives and harm economic growth.
结论
本章说明了面对今后几年日本财政政策的困境。一方面，高的政府债务和不利的人口动态日益限制了政府动作的空间，从而表明，最终将需要做出强烈的政策调节，将公共财政重新置于可持续发展的立足点上。目前由政府实施的改革是在正确方向上迈出的一步，但在退休金和卫生系统两方面的进一步措施对避免工薪税和政府拨款的巨大增长来说是需要的，否则，它们会扭曲奖励制度，并有害于经济增长。
On the other hand, the model’s simulation results suggest that ambitious debt stabilization, particularly through cuts in public investment and other expenditure, and further reductions in social security benefits could result in substantial short-term output costs, posing a risk to the recovery. This is particularly true in the case of public investment cuts, where the multipliers are generally believed to be larger. Therefore, as long as private demand remains fragile, fiscal adjustment policies would have to be implemented cautiously.
另一方面，模型的仿真结果表明，特别是通过削减公共投资和其它花费的雄心勃勃的政府债务稳定化，以及进一步降低社会保险福利金的举措，可能导致巨大的短期产出（output）成本，对复苏造成风险。在削减公共投资的情况下更是如此，因为在此情况下，人们一般都相信，倍乘效应是比较大的。因此，只要私人需求仍处于脆弱状态，财政调节政策就不得不小心实施。
However, in view of the serious aging problem, once the recovery is on a sound footing, japan will need to implement a long-term fiscal strategy that will return the public finances to a sustainable position. This chapter suggests that public investment cuts, base-broadening measures for income taxes, some increase in the consumption tax, and reductions in social security benefits are likely to be the key building blocks of the longer-term solution.
然而，鉴于严重的年龄老化问题，一旦复苏有可靠的基础，日本就需要实施一种长期的财政战略，让公共财政回归到可持续发展的位置上。本章表明，削减公共投资，采取扩大所得税税基的措施，适当提高消费税，以及减少社会保险福利金很可能是长期解决方案的关键措施。本回答被提问者采纳

Answer 3

Conclusions
结论
本章说明了日本财政政策在未来的年度中所面临的困难境况。一方面，高额的负债和不利的人口动态变化越来越限制了政府机动策略的空间，意味着最终需要进行强有力的政策调整以使公共财政回到可持续性的立足点上。政府目前所实施的改革是向正确方向跨出的一步，但还需要在养老金和医疗卫生系统方面进一步采取措施，以避免可能会歪曲刺激动机并损害经济增长的工资税收和政府转移支付方面的大幅增加。

另一方面，该模型的模拟结果显示，有深远目的的债务稳定，特别是通过减少公共投资和其它开支，以及进一步削减社会保障福利金，可以导致巨大的短期输出成本，使经济的复苏面临风险。这在减少公共投资的情况下尤其是这样（即正确的），这种情况下大家普遍认为乘数会更大。因此，只要私人的需求保持虚弱，在实施财政调整政策时就要小心谨慎。

然而，考虑到严重老化问题，一旦复苏已经稳固，日本将需要实施可使公共财经回到可持续性状态的长期财政策略。本章提出，减少公共投资、广开所得税税基措施、增加一些消费税和削减社会保障福利金极有可能成为较长期解决方案的关键因素（原意为积木）。

Answer 4

手翻，供参考：
结论：
这一章阐述了在今后几年中日本面对的财政政策的困境。一方面，高额的公共债务和不利的人口动态问题的增加束缚了政府的人为调控空间，这就暗示着，强有力的政策调整必须是建立在把公共财政放在可持续发展的地位上。政府现在执行的改革是正确的一步，但是进一步的在养老金和卫生医疗系统的措施需要必免薪水和政府支出的大幅增加，这样会失去激励作用并且妨碍经济增长。

在另一方面，此模型模拟结果显示了过度追求债务稳定，特别是通过削减公共投资和其他一些支出，还有进一步削减社会安全福利都会导致过多的短期输出成本，这对经济复苏是很大的风险。这在公共投资上是非常正确的，因为会有很大的乘数效应。因此只要个人需求仍然萎靡，财政调整政策就需要慎重的执行。

然而，鉴于严重的老化问题，一旦复苏处于正确的位置上，日本就需要执行一项长期的策略，旨在恢复公共财政处于一个可持续的位置。这章暗示了公共投资削减，拓宽所得税政策，一些消费税的增加，社会安全福利的减少都可能是这项长期方案的关键的阻碍。

Answer 5

机翻+手翻
结论
这一章节讲述了日本财政今后要面对的困难境况。一方面，高水平的公共债务和不利的人口动态越来越多地限制了政府的回旋余地，这意味着强有力的政策调整，最终将被要求把公共财政支持在可持续的基础之上。目前已实施改革的政府已经迈出了正确的一步，但在养老金和医疗系统仍将需要采取进一步措施，以避免大量增加工资税和政府贷款转让，这两项的大幅增长会损害经济原动力，对经济增长带来危害。

另一方面，该模型的模拟结果表明，雄心勃勃的债务稳定（政策），特别是通过削减公共投资和其他支出，并进一步削减社会保障福利，可能会导致大量的短期产出成本，造成复苏的新风险。尤其现在削减公共投资，在乘数一般认为是较大的情况下。因此，只要私人需求仍然脆弱，财政调整政策将不得不谨慎执行。

然而，鉴于严重的老龄化问题，一旦恢复是在稳固的基础上，日本将需要执行一项长期财政战略，将返回公共财政向可持续的立场。本章表明，削减公共投资，提高所得税，消费税征收水平，削减社会福利保障，很可能是关键的长期解决办法。