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Question

RMB升值状况分析
- 高盛：由于中国决策层对外需的下行风险感到担忧，中国政府不会大幅调整人民币/美元汇率，但由于增长和通胀相关风险趋于上行，认为人民币汇率调整和加息对于中国的逆周期调控具有积极意义。
- 布朗兄弟哈里曼(Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.)资深货币策略师Win Thin：
抑制经济增长过热，中国政府最可能采取的做法是实施部门监控，如提高银行存款准备金等、或类似政府近来所引进的为房市降温的措施。认为中国央行将在年中升息及人民币升值，因为中国政府不愿屈服于欧美现在的施压。
- 渣打银行：
中国可能已经作出汇改决策，将通过逐步调整每日中间价来逐步提升人民币汇率弹性，具体启动时机最早将在5月10日当周世博会开幕后出现。到数月后，若出口稳定，则中国人民银行可能宣布像07年
下半年那样的加速升值。
- 日媒评论：中国正在吸取《广场协议》之后的日本经济的教训，认为逐步提高人民币汇率是良策，否则后期或将发生的人民币急剧升值会产生极大的副作用。
-亚洲开发银行首席经济学家李钟和：
建议人民币汇率逐步升值，而非进行一次性币值重估，这样可避免给中国出口商和相邻经济体带来不利影响，提高汇率灵活性将帮助中国吸收大量资金流入、抑制通货膨胀并推进国内经济向内需驱动型转变；此外，这还有助于缓解全球经济失衡问题。

Answer 1

Gao Sheng : Down tier of external necessaries risk feels being anxious for because China makes policy , the Chinese government can not adjust the RMB/ exchange rate of US dollar by large margins , it is all right for relevance risk tend to become to go ahead , the contrary period thinking that the exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies adjustment sum increases interest to Chinese regulates and controls but because the increase swells with to have active significance. -Brotherly Brown Haliman (Brown Brothers Harriman & Co.) Senior currency tactics learns from Win Thin: Restraining the method of work that economic growth hot shot , the Chinese government adopt may most is to put branch supervisory control into practice, measure being that housing market cools down if the raise the deposits held in banks reserve waiting, or similar government is recently what be introduced to. Think that China entreats being going to soon appreciate in the middle of the year litre of interest and RMB, Shi now presses on because the Chinese government is unwilling to knuckle under Yu Europe and America. -The Chartered Bank: Chinese possibility is already made converging to switch over to make policy, the exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies being advanced with coming to proceed orderly by adjusting everyday middle rate step by step is flexible , concrete starting opportunity appears will long ago after thinking that cycle World's Fair opens on May 10 most. Arrive at , after counting month if exporting stability , be that People's Bank of China may announce acceleration such as second half of the year for 7 years appreciates. -The matchmaker discusses Japan: Otherwise China is absorbing the economical Japan lesson after "public square agreement " , think that raising exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies step by step is good plan, that later stage or RMB will happen appreciates rapidly may produce the immense side effect. -Asian Development Bank chief The Economists Li Zhong draws: Appreciation suggesting that exchange rates for the Renminbi against other currencies proceeds orderly, but be not that one time currency value being in progress is heavy estimate, such may avoid giving China exporter to bring about with the adjacent economy body adverse effect the flexibility , improving exchange rate changes the economy helping China to absorb large amount of capital inflow , bringing down the inflation and pushing forward in the homeland to domestic needs drive type; That besides, this returns back is helpful to the problem relieving the whole world economy unbalance.