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Question

水资源短缺风险综合评价

水资源，是指可供人类直接利用，能够不断更新的天然水体。主要包括陆地上的地表水和地下水。
风险，是指某一特定危险情况发生的可能性和后果的组合。
水资源短缺风险，泛指在特定的时空环境条件下，由于来水和用水两方面存在不确定性，使区域水资源系统发生供水短缺的可能性以及由此产生的损失。
近年来，我国、特别是北方地区水资源短缺问题日趋严重，水资源成为焦点话题。
以北京市为例，北京是世界上水资源严重缺乏的大都市之一，其人均水资源占有量不足300m3，为全国人均的1/8，世界人均的1/30，属重度缺水地区，附表中所列的数据给出了1979年至2000年北京市水资源短缺的状况。北京市水资源短缺已经成为影响和制约首都社会和经济发展的主要因素。政府采取了一系列措施, 如南水北调工程建设, 建立污水处理厂,产业结构调整等。但是，气候变化和经济社会不断发展，水资源短缺风险始终存在。如何对水资源风险的主要因子进行识别，对风险造成的危害等级进行划分，对不同风险因子采取相应的有效措施规避风险或减少其造成的危害，这对社会经济的稳定、可持续发展战略的实施具有重要的意义。
《北京2009统计年鉴》及市政统计资料提供了北京市水资源的有关信息。利用这些资料和你自己可获得的其他资料，讨论以下问题：
1.评价判定北京市水资源短缺风险的主要风险因子是什么？
影响水资源的因素很多,例如：气候条件、水利工程设施、工业污染、农业用水、管理制度，人口规模等。
2.建立一个数学模型对北京市水资源短缺风险进行综合评价， 作出风险等级划分并陈述理由。对主要风险因子,如何进行调控，使得风险降低？
3.对北京市未来两年水资源的短缺风险进行预测，并提出应对措施。

附表 1979年至2000年北京市水资源短缺的状况

年份 总用水量(亿立方米) 农业用水(亿立方米) 工业用水(亿立方米) 第三产业及生活等其它用水(亿立方米) 水资源总量（亿方）
1979 42.92 24.18 14.37 4.37 38.23
1980 50.54 31.83 13.77 4.94 26
1981 48.11 31.6 12.21 4.3 24
1982 47.22 28.81 13.89 4.52 36.6
1983 47.56 31.6 11.24 4.72 34.7
1984 40.05 21.84 14.376 4.017 39.31
1985 31.71 10.12 17.2 4.39 38
1986 36.55 19.46 9.91 7.18 27.03
1987 30.95 9.68 14.01 7.26 38.66
1988 42.43 21.99 14.04 6.4 39.18
1989 44.64 24.42 13.77 6.45 21.55
1990 41.12 21.74 12.34 7.04 35.86
1991 42.03 22.7 11.9 7.43 42.29
1992 46.43 19.94 15.51 10.98 22.44
1993 45.22 20.35 15.28 9.59 19.67
1994 45.87 20.93 14.57 10.37 45.42
1995 44.88 19.33 13.78 11.77 30.34
1996 40.01 18.95 11.76 9.3 45.87
1997 40.32 18.12 11.1 11.1 22.25
1998 40.43 17.39 10.84 12.2 37.7
1999 41.71 18.45 10.56 12.7 14.22
2000 40.4 16.49 10.52 13.39 16.86
注：2000年以后的数据可以在《北京2009统计年鉴》上查到。

Answer 1

Guilin BEIJING, June 22 (Xinhua Tangmeng Xian Wang Zhibin) four State Department officials suspect fake deception Juicy Swimwear, fraud victim Tangmou $ 300,000, lied to help it when the Hall level cadres. June 17, the suspect Danmou, Liu, Yu XX, Longmou 4 on suspicion of fraud by Guilin police criminal detention.
22, Guilin, Guangxi police to the media reporting the incident. According to reports, the afternoon of June 16, the victim came to Guilin Public Security Bureau Tangmou Diecai Branch report said in May this year he met through a friend Longmou a tour of Beijing, tour a new claim to the State Office of Rural Construction Management staff, the inspection tour in Guangxi, and identify candidates for management of new rural construction in Guangxi as head of the Office. Tangmou briefed their own situation, and to accompany a tour to visit his two real estate companies, an invitation to visit Nanning, capital of Guangxi tong to see new countryside construction and management of the State Council Office of the Deputy Director of Danmou.
5 27, tong plus swimwear, Longmou saw Danmou invited to Nanning, Danmou of Tangmou said Swimwear For Women, you people are really capable, is doing big things. Danmou also said to go to Beijing to see the State Department with a tong leaders, and official documents issued by the State Council appointed director of Guangxi tong.
6 7, tong and Longmou two plane arrived in Beijing, Danmou, accompanied by both a tour to visit the Beijing Miyun water Zhangcun, tell them this is a new construction of pilot villages in rural areas . 8, Tangmou raised to see the State Council. Danmou that see leadership activities need to spend 300,000 yuan fee, and promised to be able to see the next day after the appointment of the leadership of the file. 10, Tangmou 2 times to 300,000 yuan exchange to swim a personal account.
10 evening, accompanied by a claim to the State Department Danmou surnamed Liu with Tangmou ministers to meet and eat with a group photo. Liu for Tangmou that there is now a village bank, as long as you to register 50 million yuan knockoff Swimwear, the State Council can call 5 billion to support you, but need activity fee 300 million.
6 月 15 日 Danmou, Liu, who came to visit Guilin, a 3, Tangmou responsible for arranging the reception, and again asked not to bring official documents. Danmou said the leadership is busy yet somehow, they listen to me, back to Beijing immediately to run. Tangmou heard the feeling wrong, then through friends and in online inquiries, confirm that these people are not the staff of the State Council, made to police.
Diecai Public Security Bureau received the alarm, give attention immediately for investigation. 16 pm, police four suspects back to the Public Security Bureau verification of identity for review. Upon review, the 51-year-old suspect Danmou, Hebei Chengde; Liu, 57, Xiaogan people; tour of a 60-year-old Beijing; Longmou Guilin. Four suspects fraud for posing as State Department staff confessed to $ 300,000.
present case is under further investigation. After
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Answer 2

自己解决!不要作弊

Answer 3

这 哎

Answer 4

是不是要用matlab 处理数据的？追问

可以，话说WORD里面也有公式输入吧，不过用MATLAB就比较方便。能做的话请发到我邮箱[email protected]